The jobs report for March 2013 came out with some dismal results. Dismal is an understatement if you really look at the numbers. The jobs data suggested an increase in jobs, in the form of nonfarm payroll employment ‘edged’ (BLS’s phrase, my scary quotes) up by 88,000. The unemployment rate dropped .10% to 7.6%. Sounded weak, but plodding along, right? Wrong. There’s an old saying of ‘figures lie and liars figure’. I wanted to look a little deeper, and one of my old profs (Dr. Don Byrne) had pointed out that the underlying number were much more complex. Consider the...

Someone on Cyprus had a brilliant idea to bail out their banking system: to impose a tax on bank accounts. If you have less than €100,000, they want to tax the account 6.75%. If you have over €100,000, the tax would be 9.9%. So, in effect, you now have the Cypriot government proposing to rob bank accounts. It is impressive: no scrawled notes, no guns, no panic. Just good old-fashioned theft.How well will this work? Well, if I had a Cyprus bank account (I don’t), I’d take all of my money out of the bank. The Russian depositors, as well...

As the end of the year approached, I wondered if the Mayan calendar makers and the folks in Washington had the same playbook. But at midnight, the ball descended onto Times Square and ushered in 2013 and the last second fix on the Cliff. The critical question is: Now what?The President and Congress (the Senate actually, as I write the blog), in a paragon of diligence and virtue, passed a last minute “fix” on the Fiscal Cliff. The fix, as predicted, is a combination of spending cuts and tax increases on the upper brackets....

For 2013, a theme of Austerity is clearly emerging with the uncertainty of the “Fiscal Cliff." The European Union is forcing austerity on its Southern countries, and the Fiscal Cliff and looming debt leviathan is forcing austerity on the US. Our outlook looks at three versions of austerity and the probable consequences for the New Year.Cliff Note One: Austerity Lite"Austerity Lite” is a Band-Aid style patch where some modest revenue increases are coupled with some very modest budget cuts. Light tax increases and light budget cuts will probably avert an immediate recession, but keep the deficit growing. This may be...

Since the election, an increase in concern for the looming "fiscal cliff" has been made apparent by the media, investors, and even Congress (it's about time).We have created a chart that is easy to understand and gives a concise explanation of what this so called cliff really is, along with speculative probabilities of fixing each component. Much of it is based on our White Paper about the fiscal cliff from earlier in the year.Click here to view Gauging the Fiscal Cliff on our site.

I remember one of the first times I saw The Weather Channel.  I thought it was neat. I waited until the ‘local weather on the 8s’ and changed the channel.  Strange business model, I thought. Who will watch it for more than 10 minutes? Then I found myself watching more and more, especially the shows about storms. I suppose it’s just human nature to be fascinated with disaster and destruction. I am particularly intrigued by the projection as the storms form in the ocean, build strength and then wreak their fury.  It’s possible we have a triad of storms for...